On the Rise & Fall of Civilizations - Part 3 [Translated Extract]
Part three of Ibn Khaldun's Muqaddimah: powerful states have a natural lifespan, rarely exceeding three generations.
Chapter 3. Part 14:
Powerful, political states have a natural lifespan just like people.
In regard to the lifespan of powerful, political states, they mostly do not exceed the lifespans of three generations. A generation being equal to the average lifespan of a single individual – forty years, which is the end of growth and development to its utmost. The Most High states, “And We have enjoined man to be virtuous unto his parents. His mother carried him in anguish and bore him in anguish, and his gestation and weaning is thirty months, such that when he reaches maturity and reaches forty years…”[1] This is how we deduced that the lifespan of an individual is the lifespan of a single generation.
This is further reinforced by what we mentioned of the wisdom in the exile of the Children of Israel (for forty years). What was intended by these forty years was the dying out of the living generation and the nurturing of a new one, not acquainted with the humiliation (imposed upon them in Egypt) nor habituated to it. This also attests to the notion of the lifespan of a generation being forty years, the same as that for an (average) individual.
We stated that the lifespan of a political state does not surpass, in the most part, three generations. This is since the first generation continues to bear nomadic qualities, of being able to endure coarseness, roughness, and having valor, fierceness, aggressiveness, and sharing glory amongst themselves. Hence, the vehemence of their ‘communal solidarity’ (asabiyah) remains in force. Their sword is sharpened, their flank is feared, and the people are conquered before them.
As for the generation succeeding them, their condition is changed from nomadic to sedentary living by the trappings of power and luxury. Rugged lifestyles are swapped for affluence and abundance, from sharing the glory to it being monopolized by one alone, the rest being too lazy to strive for it, and from the prestige of expansive borders to the humiliation of subjugation to others. Hence, their ‘communal solidarity’ is somewhat fractured, and they become accustomed to docility and resignation.
Yet, many praiseworthy traits still remain with them, due to what they witnessed from the first generation, and their attempts to purse the first generation’s qualities. They witnessed their glory, their striving for honor and prestige, and their aspirations for their defense and repelling opponents. Thus, this second generation is not predisposed to abandon all their praiseworthy traits even though they lose a portion of it. They are still of the hope that the conditions of the previous generation will return or under the delusion that they are as the first generation was.
As for the third generation, then they have forgotten the age of nomad-ism and harsh living, as if it never existed. Likewise, they have lost the taste for prominence and ‘communal solidarity’ (asabiyah) due to their prolonged exposure to subservience. Their standard of luxury reaches a climax due to their indulgence in opulence and affluent living. They become dependent upon the state, and the men become like women and children requiring protection. Their ‘communal solidarity’ (asabiyah) totally collapses. Protecting and defending themselves, as well as demanding (from other nations), is no longer a priority. Although they may appear before the masses donning their emblems and costumes, riding fine steeds, and hiding behind their fine culture, they are in fact, more cowardly than women upon their backs. When a competitor now seeks to take what belongs to them, they are unable to mount a defense. Their leader requires the protection of foreign powers, increases in dependence on slaves, and bestows some of their wealth to those that aid him. That is till Allah permits the state’s fall, and it perishes by way of these burdens. This is how we perceive the three generations in which the fall of a civilization occurs.
Thus, the collapse (of a powerful state) is deduced to occur in the fourth generation. We previously mentioned how glory and prestige only subsists in four generations. We have presented to you facts and sufficient, plain evidence, built upon our introductory premises. So, consider this, and you will not bypass the truth if you are amongst the unbiased.
These are then the three generations whose lifespan is one hundred and twenty years, as was mentioned. A state does not generally trespass beyond this lifespan, give, or take – except in the case where they are not exposed to another powerful competitor. It’s collapse would technically still have occurred, but an opposing force would not be there to usurp their power. Had the usurpers seized the opportunity, they would find nothing stopping them to do so. “And for every community there is a term appointed. When their term comes, they shall not delay it by a single hour, nor shall they advance it.”[2]
This is the lifespan of a powerful state, similar to that of individuals, in that they have growth until they reach their peak and then begins the decline. Hence, it is common to hear from the tongues of people that the lifespan of a state is one hundred years.
Consider this, you will find it a means to correctly calculate the number of generations in an ancestral, family tree by way of the years that have passed if you are in doubt about the number of generations. If you know the number of years that have passed since the first generation, then for every hundred years count three generations. If this matches with the number of generations you had previously supposed, then your assumption was correct. If you find that the calculation is short by a generation, then an error was made, and an additional generation was mistakenly added to the family tree. Likewise, a generation would have been overlooked if the calculation is greater than what you supposed. Similarly, you may calculate the number of years that have passed by counting their generations, if you know it. So, ponder this, you will find it in the most part accurate. “…and it is Allah who measures out the night and the day…”[3]
[1] Quran 46:15
[2] Quran 7:34
[3] Quran 73:20
- Excerpt from Ibn Khaldun’s Muqaddimah. Translated by Omer Siddique.
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Originally published on the Dhikr Substack.